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Straddling the Pandemic ‘Tightrope’ into the Future

All of us, I am confident, would like to know when we will eventually return to some type of ‘normalcy’ in our personal and professional lives – and inject more stability and certainty into our local and national economies. Whatever this new ‘normalcy’ will eventually look like, and when it will happen, remains to play out for various reasons.

Growing evidence suggests that our eventual ‘new normal’ will be different from the environment we had prior to the onslaught of COVID-19, just over a month ago. As the weeks accumulate, over 90 percent of Americans are staying home to work and practice social-distance living. Trying to jump-start ailing local and national economies while keeping the population safe from this contagious virus is akin to walking a tightrope over the Grand Canyon. As a country, this is the ‘balance’ we hope to obtain.

Some good news for Americans – the Grand Canyon tightrope was indeed completed in 2013 by Nik Wallenda.

Through the dedication of those researching a vaccine to treat COVID-19 and the brave medical workers serving our communities, our country will inch our way through this pandemic tightrope – but it will take precious time and patience.

One mathematical modeling study recently released by Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, predicting various scenarios for the pandemic, suggests that intermittent periods of social distancing in the U.S. may be required into 2022. Yes, 2022!  A number of factors will determine the path the virus will take in the coming years – such as, if transmission subsides this summer and resurges in the winter, and if some immunity is induced by infection and how long it will last. Taking delicate steps to avert a surge of severely-sickened people from overwhelming the U.S. healthcare system is paramount.

When implementing national policy and procedures, researchers from this particular study are not advocating any single course of action over another, but their modeling suggests it will require a number of actions to fight this virus into the future. As mentioned by the researchers, “Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.” The researchers acknowledge that ongoing intermittent social distancing will have profound consequences on economic, social and educational outcomes.

The overall conclusion of this research? It is unlikely that life (as we once knew it) will return any time soon. An article that explains this study in greater detail can be found in Stat Reports. This modeling research is expected to be useful to public officials and disease experts when planning for the continued response to the COVID-19 virus.

Please understand, there will be competing projection models that will suggest more rosy prognostications while others will suggest more dire projections toward reaching a new level of ‘normalcy.’ Although performed by a prestigious institution, the Harvard modeling effort will likely be updated as more is learned about the impact of the virus in the weeks and months to follow.

Iowans and Americans will need to confront the brutal facts of what the long-term COVID-19 implications are in the next chapter of this worldwide pandemic. We must learn to adapt by having realistic expectations of living a ‘new normal’ life.

Despite having no practice, this tightrope performance will require stamina, courage, and a great deal of patience.

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