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By 2025, 38 Percent of State & Local Budgets will be Consumed by Healthcare

Do you ever wonder why so many of my blogs are about healthcare? It’s actually quite simple. The healthcare ‘problem’ is constant, unbridled, unsustainable, frustrating and largely because it is covered in green – money green.

The cost of healthcare has been, and continues to be, the bane of existence in our lives. It has become the new ‘weather’ in our discussions, as most everyone talks about it, but very little has been done to change it.

Another example of just how dangerous healthcare costs have become was recently reported by Fitch Ratings, a financial information services organization with operations in more than 30 countries. Their analysis states (suggests) that rising health insurance costs and retirement rates will increase budgetary pressure on U.S. state and local governments – which will adversely impact their financial ratings.

Developing their own 10-year scenario analysis for state and local budget allocations, Fitch assumed that healthcare and pension expenses would continue to grow rapidly while no policies would be implemented to offset this growth. From this, Fitch found that healthcare and social services would increase from annual budgets of 27.6 percent in 2005 to an estimated 38.3 percent by 2025. Consequently, budgets for state and local spending for education, transportation/public safety/environmental and housing would each decrease, largely due to being crowded-out by growing healthcare costs.

Inaction during this time (2018-2025) by local and state policymakers and administrators will only cause this problem to fester – the proverbial “can being kicked down the road” for later generations to tackle. State and local budgets cannot afford this to happen, not now, and certainly not in the future.

One need look no further than what is happening in our public-school systems here in Iowa and around the country. Paychecks for teachers have become skimpier, causing school teachers, students and supporters to strike. A recent story by Kaiser Health paints a very realistic picture of what Fitch’s findings reveal for our state and local communities in the months and years to come.

On top of the Fitch analysis, a PricewaterhouseCoopers report on employer-sponsored healthcare projects a six percent medical-cost growth in 2019. Although this growth rate is similar to the past five-year trend in medical cost growth, it nonetheless continues to exceed the annual consumer price index (CPI). This presents the “unsustainable” cost paradigm for consumers and employers who foot the majority of the medical bills through higher premiums, deductibles and charges. Having access to healthcare remains important, but so too, are controlling the cost of the care received. Healthcare prices are largely opaque, requiring a persistent push for price and outcome transparencies that have so far eluded the healthcare industry.

As far back as 442 B.C., Sophocles expressed the message don’t blame the person who brings bad news. With that said, hey, I’m only the messenger – don’t shoot me!

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